In 2015, former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger described football as: ‘completely unpredictable…more so than any other sport’. This is perhaps why so many people watch it, but it also makes deciding on your soccer picks pretty tough!
How do People Usually Make Their Soccer Picks?
This is mainly down to personal choice. Some people like to base their soccer predictions on statistics. There are vast amounts of data available for the English Premier League. There are statistics for everything from the goals scored by home and away teams to the number of yellow cards. You can rest assured that the Bookmakers will be using this information, so it’s important to know. Nonetheless, if you rely purely on statistics you will only be using what the bookmakers know, so in the long run they will win.
Smarter people will look for knowledge that the bookmakers will not have allowed for. If they have lots of time, they can do detailed research about the clubs who are playing. They will look for news about any problems in the camp, players in form, and the mood of the fans. They will use sources like club websites, local newspapers and fans forums. In addition, they will have watched both teams play recently, helping them to see how they match up. Of course, most people don’t have time for all this, which is why soccer online picks are useful.
Why Should I use Soccer Online Picks?
There are plenty of online soccer predictions out there. It’s pretty easy to see that some of them are not worth considering, as they are based on simplistic statistics. Others use arguments that are clearly not derived from watching the teams play. Top soccer picks are based on arguments that show real knowledge of the clubs and the league. Do not be fooled by high win percentages claimed for past bets. If they recommend only betting on massive favorites, they will generally win, but only very small amounts. Crucially, you could easily work these ones out for yourself, so tips that offer consistent tiny wins are no use. The best tips are based on information which you did not know, and may go against general expectations. Such tips will not always win, but they will give you the best chance of beating the odds.
What do I Need to Look out for to Find the Best Soccer Picks?
A bit of initial research will tell you whether soccer online picks are worth following. Do not be fooled by modest recent successes. Verify whether they are just tipping heavy favorites. If they are simply tipping Manchester City to win at home, this is neither clever nor helpful! Even if this is not the case, recent successes can simply have happened by chance. Psychologists like to pose the question: ‘If a fair coin has come up heads six times in a row, is it more likely to come up heads or tails next?’ The answer is neither, because the six heads arose purely by chance, and this does not affect the next toss. Do not make the mistake of assuming that past luck will continue.
Look for comments that show knowledge. For example, disregard predictions based purely on comments like: ‘Cardiff score very few goals’ (too obvious). Look for comments like: ‘Cardiff welcome back Camarasa and Niasse, and will be far more dangerous than of late’. The latter shows knowledge of key players, availability and form. You might think a tipster is worth following might if they show knowledge of styles and formations. For example: ‘Leicester will do well because Vardy is scoring goals again’ is simplistic and can be ignored. A comment like: ‘Rodgers is asking Maddison to play more longer passes over the top to suit Vardy’s style’ shows knowledge. Combining this with an assessment of the pace of the opposition defence could lead to a useful prediction.
Is There a System Which Works for Soccer Picks?
You might hope to find a betting system which will give you a steady, reliable set of wins. Unfortunately, such a system does not exist. Any system which makes sense will be based on statistics. As mentioned earlier, the bookmakers will have plenty of statistics, and will set odds to make a long-term profit. Using a statistical system will pretty reliably lead to a small long-term loss- and where’s the fun in that?
There is one situation, however, where you should primarily use statistics, and that is spread betting. If you have decided to go for this risky option in the hope of earning a big win, you must be completely dispassionate. Use the statistics to find the best bets, and be prepared to cash out early, even if this causes a loss. If you begin to change your bets, or try to cover losses, based on instinct, you risk big losses. You should work out the system you want to use for spread betting, or find one online, before you start. Look for evidence that the system has been scientifically derived. There is no harm in using online soccer picks alongside such a system, but apply the system unemotionally.
Can I use my Initiative in Making my Soccer Picks?
It is great if you can use your own instincts alongside the knowledge of any tipsters you are following. Try to watch some games, and develop an idea of which teams are showing good attitude and improvement. For example, you may have watched some Fulham matches, and noted that they are playing well without much luck. Your favorite expert tipster points out that under their new coach they have brought Sessegnon back into the team. He or she feels that this will produce more chances for Mitrovic and increase the number of goals they score. This might lead you to place a bet on a Fulham win next time they play lowly opponents. It’s your bet: use soccer predictions from real experts to back up your opinion, and have fun!